No using search engines or calculator, just imagine you were given these choices in jail and got 30 seconds to choose.
Would you rather have the executioner (Please excuse my use of firearm terminology, I’m not an expert in guns):
[A] Load 1 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 6 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)
or
[B] Load 2 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger 3 times (spinning the chamber after each pull)
or
[C] Load 4 chamber of 6 and spin before pull the trigger once
If you survive, you are pardoned of all crimes you’ve committed in the past and get to leave prison (alive, obviously), no compensation tho. (Attempts to end your own life is illegal)
Which of these options would you pick?
No search engine, no calculator pls. I’m bored and wanna make this fun. 😉
If you are confused, ask in comments.
Edit: Reworded it to clarify that the chamber is spinned before the first trigger is pulled.
Deciding within 30 seconds, C. B is clearly worse and math seems to imply similar odds for A but it takes too long to calculate.
I’d choose C and in a cheesy super villain voice say “look me in the eyes when you do it”
Executioner is a robot, feels no emotion
💥🔫🤖
Gut says C feels safer and definitely less torturous so I chose C. Turns out A is better but only by 0.1% so not worth the wait.
Guessed A then looked in the comments and that looked to be the best option so now I’m gonna roll some dice to see if I got released or not
Edit: aw beans
I’d go with C. Here are my MENTAL maths for odds of survival:
- A: (5/6)^6
- B: (4/6)^3 = (2/3)^3 = 8/27
- C: 2/6 = 1/3 = 9/27
C is clearly better than B. I have no clue how much A is, but it follows the same basic reasoning as B, so it’s probably worse than C too.
Spoilers:
spoiler
A > C > B in terms of survival, or you could reverse it if you want to die and end your misery. Choices choices… 😉
Discussion
I did the maths after commenting. (5/6)⁶ = 33.49%, not too far from 1/3 = 33.33%.
Who wants to live forever anyway? :-P
That’s a fun game by the way!
Your misery will be greatly reduced if you live and are released.
Yea but you walk out with zero money. 🥲 You still have to find a job, and you might be pardoned, but the missing job history is gonna raise a lot of red flags.
So again… choices choices…
Either way you’re good.
C. Just get it over with. Can’t wait for the spin and reshoot.
Spoiler:
Tap for spoiler
0/6 chance to live <— actually I’m probably wrong about this one, I missed the “spin after each pull”… should be (5/6)^6 chance to live (~34%)
2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 chance to live = 8/27 chance to live (~30%)
2/6 chance to live (~33%)
Segue, what makes you more comfortable for B?
This 🌕🌕🌑🌑🌑🌑
Or
That 🌕🌑🌑🌕🌑🌑My first read I missed that the you were spinning the chamber between shots. I was thinking people pick B assuming its the first one and then get fucked the second way
Anyway, I think I’d go with C. If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen, and I didn’t get to death row by not believing in instant gratification
Attempts to end your own life is illegal
What are they gonna do? Kill me?
Also, I’m gonna say B before doing the math.
I've done the math, I think.
Okay, the probability of living is the amount of unloaded chambers over the amount of chambers in total to the power of the amount of shots taken. Given that, we can conclude that…
- Option A (
(5/6)^6) gives you a 33.49% chance of survival, - Option B (
(4/6)^3) gives you a 29.63% chance of survival, and - Option C (
(2/6)^1) gives you a 33.33% chance of survival
So, turns out, I’ve chosen the worst odds. Whoops. However, they’re so close that it honestly doesn’t matter that much.
Also, sorry to those whose clients don’t do spoilers. I’m with you on that one, I use Eternity.
- Option A (
load 4 chambers, attempt to take a guard or 4 with me
🤣
Lol you’re not loading it, the executioner is.
You’re just voicing your choice.
To the guards, “I choose the four bullets… But not for me!”
Isn’t A by far the best odds? If he spins after each shot doesn’t it kinda reset to really being 5/6 chance you’re ok minus the one fired last, so 4/6.
spoiler
It is, but that’s not how the math works.
You calculate using odds of survival. Its (5/6) done 6 times so its (5/6)^6 which is about 33.335% chance of survival, slightly better than with 4 chambers of 6 loaded and trigger pulled once, which would be (2/6) or 33.333%
Oh is it trigger pulled pointed at you 6 times? I thought the trigger pulls were just to waste one safe shot, but you’re only on the hook for one. Which made all that other part kinda a fuzzy waste.
That changes everything and makes so much more sense.
Off the top of my head, I think the best chances of survival are: C, A, B. I’m not sure about A vs. C, because A’s total odds are hard to calculate in my head, while C is exactly 1/3 (33.33%).
The reason A is better than B is that a 1/6 chance of dying, twice, is better than a 2/6 chance of dying, once. They might seem at first like the same, but consider that one of those 36 chances in the A case is where you get shot twice in a row. That’s no worse than a regular death. So it comes out to only 11/36 of dying in the first two rounds of A, but 12/36 of dying in the first one round of B.
spoiler
Using a calculator. it turns out A is actually 0.16% better than C. They’re really about the same.
Because the barrel is spun each time it’s a simple percentage assuming the weight of the bullets don’t affect the spin. A is 16.2% for each trigger pull. B is 33.3% chance each trigger pull. C is 66.7%. The chances don’t stack because the barrel is spun again before each shot.
That’s not how statistics work.
Leta say you’re on your 6:th shot on option A.
For you to even get there, it requires all previous attempts to be in your favor. You’re looking at events that all have to happen in a favorable order. And that is as follows
5/6 chance you live after the first time. (5/6)^2 chance you live after the second. (Because you have to survive the first) (5/6)^3 chance you live after the third. (Because you have to survive the first AND the second) … and so on until (5/6)^6 ~ 33%
Think about flipping a coin. Do you really think getting 6 heads in a row is 50/50? The coin is “reset” between each flip. But it’s not a 50/50 chance to get 6 heads in a row. If you don’t believe me. Try it and see. According to statistics. It will take you 64 attempts to get 6 heads in a row.
By this logic, if you roll a die 1000 times, you have only a 1/6 chance to get at teast one 6.
deleted by creator
They don’t stack, but statistically the probability of a fire goes up each time it is spun again. It’s not additive, but it does increase.
statistically the probability of a fire goes up each time it is spun again.
Please show your work here.
Probability = 1 - (1 - 1/6)^6So the probability that the gun goes off is 66.51%
I would choose option C.
4/6 loaded and 1 pull.
I’m not taking their offer, better certain death than an unknown.
That is a WILD take, man. If you’re serious, you’re a new kind of person I’ve never met before.
This might count as “unusual” punishment, but imo it’s far less cruel than what’s usually on the table on death row
